Best Not To Be Technical Llc Podcasts (2025)

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RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs 37:45

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1h ago37:45

37:45

In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above normal. The team also digs into gold’s breakout amid falling yields, the shifting dynamics between semis, small c…

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RenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed Shakeout 48:11

7d ago48:11

48:11

This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor…

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RenMac Off-Script: We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents 34:15

14d ago34:15

34:15

RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum h…

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RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion 34:51

21d ago34:51

34:51

RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; market leadership from small caps to Asia and the improvement in consumer discretionary relative to staples; and why the government’s stake in Intel is part of a more muscular industrial policy approach to…

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RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken 34:57

28d ago34:57

34:57

RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair…

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RenMac Off-Script: Summer Soft-Patch 36:34

1M ago36:34

36:34

RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potential for a September-to-December rate cut cycle, critiques Trump’s strategic positioning on the Fed Chair with Waller as the dark horse and flag narrowing breadth, seasonality risks, and why copper’s news-…

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RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed 42:07

1M ago42:07

42:07

RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB normalization and the Yen carry trade unwind.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Surprise 35:38

2M ago35:38

35:38

RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdown risks, seasonal patterns shifting the beta/momentum trade, and the unusual dynamic of rising rates and falling currencies.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited 34:39

2M ago34:39

34:39

RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Medellin in the summer.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions 26:52

2M ago26:52

26:52

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have los…

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RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition 35:44

2M ago35:44

35:44

RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO? 35:47

3M ago35:47

35:47

RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: TDS Gives Way to IDF 32:50

3M ago32:50

32:50

RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance 25:36

3M ago25:36

25:36

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not 32:36

3M ago32:36

32:36

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal 37:12

3M ago37:12

37:12

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo? 36:13

4M ago36:13

36:13

RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs CelticsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes 38:09

4M ago38:09

38:09

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a KnickerbockerBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty 42:09

4M ago42:09

42:09

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mai…

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RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade 28:15

4M ago28:15

28:15

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…

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RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”? 35:10

5M ago35:10

35:10

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-ba…

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RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages 50:43

5M ago50:43

50:43

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day 49:35

5M ago49:35

49:35

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced 36:50

5M ago36:50

36:50

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied 40:30

6M ago40:30

40:30

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent 41:02

6M ago41:02

41:02

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding marke…

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RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse 33:22

6M ago33:22

33:22

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty 26:24

6M ago26:24

26:24

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Data and Industrials 30:50

7M ago30:50

30:50

RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Valentine VAT 34:35

7M ago34:35

34:35

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat Camp 35:20

7M ago35:20

35:20

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-BagBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Tick-Tock Tariffs 35:40

7M ago35:40

35:40

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation 31:52

7M ago31:52

31:52

RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Sensation 21:21

8M ago21:21

21:21

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Yields Take Their Toll 17:13

8M ago17:13

17:13

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMs 27:34

8M ago27:34

27:34

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump or Slump 23:46

8M ago23:46

23:46

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Jay Sees Ghost of Christmas Past 25:19

9M ago25:19

25:19

RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Bond Bull in a China Shop? 24:33

9M ago24:33

24:33

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Pardon the Payrolls 24:38

9M ago24:38

24:38

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Overconfident? 26:11

9M ago26:11

26:11

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent - (originally produced Feb 2021) 42:26

9M ago42:26

42:26

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.…

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RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice 19:11

10M ago19:11

19:11

RenMac discusses: Latest developments with Trump appointments The horserace for Treasury secretary Ongoing weakness in labor demand Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish Impact of political appointments on specific sectorsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling 31:04

10M ago31:04

31:04

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate 25:17

10M ago25:17

25:17

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss: Expectations between now and election Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery The big losers Path of unified government Inflation expectations Cyclical trade and market’s message Labor market conditions Powell’s future Importance of personnel to discern direction forward…

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RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise 31:01

10M ago31:01

31:01

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s endBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued? 25:44

11M ago25:44

25:44

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training 25:42

11M ago25:42

25:42

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump 27:30

11M ago27:30

27:30

RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and …

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RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt 26:23

11M ago26:23

26:23

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick