Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrum ...
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More than just your typical market analysis podcast, EFGAM'S CIO Moz Afzal goes Beyond the benchmark, delving into current topics and global trends with guests and experts from within EFG and further afield. The podcast is released fortnightly.
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RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not
32:36
32:36
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32:36RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal
37:12
37:12
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37:12RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?
36:13
36:13
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36:13RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs CelticsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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José Pedro Almeida, Executive in Residence at INSEAD, explains how he helps governments, investors and businesses lead AI and digital transformations, with a particular focus on healthcare. From how to get CEO buy-in to the dos (and don’ts) of measuring success, Jose explains the human role in a GenAI enabled business. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://…
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RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a KnickerbockerBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mai…
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EP 116: How Meta Manages Misinformation in a Rapidly Changing World
38:06
38:06
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38:06What role do global platforms such as Meta have in managing misinformation? What is the difference between misinformation and fake news, and what impact does it have on society? What lessons has Meta learnt from the challenging geopolitical environment of the past few years? Moz talks to Tom Bonsundy O’Bryan, Head of misinformation policy for EMEA …
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RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade
28:15
28:15
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28:15RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…
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RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-ba…
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RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages
50:43
50:43
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50:43RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 115: The state of sustainable investing: crisis or opportunity?
31:41
31:41
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31:41The Trump administration has an infamously dim view on sustainability, but what does this really mean for the landscape of sustainable investing? Melanie Beyeler, Senior Portfolio Manager at New Capital, talks to Moz about why it’s not necessarily all bad news for the segment, and what sustainable investing opportunities may arise out of the new gl…
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RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 114: Inside the Mind of a CIO: Moz Afzal’s Investment Journey
29:53
29:53
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29:53In this special episode of Beyond the Benchmark, the tables are turned as EFG’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Moz Afzal, steps into the hot seat. Fresh off being named CIO of the Year at the 2025 WealthBriefing European Awards, Moz shares insights into his journey from junior analyst to managing $25 billion in assets. He discusses the key challe…
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RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding marke…
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RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse
33:22
33:22
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33:22RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 113: The 6 Laws of Technology with Nathan Furr Part 3
32:08
32:08
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32:08Is it really the case that the first to invent a technology is the one who benefits from it in the long term? Is it a myth that we can accurately predict the outcomes of new innovation? In this final episode of the 3 part Laws of Technology series, Nathan Furr dispels two oft-held but statistically untrue myths about human innovation. This episode …
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RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Chinese generative AI contender, DeepSeek, caused huge waves in markets across the globe at the end of January. Investors and analysts were caught flat footed after the Chinese company, operating on inferior hardware, revealed a generative AI comparable to leading Western models while claiming that development costs had been a fraction of their Ame…
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RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-BagBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 111: Trump, Putin, Xi and World Politics with Gideon Rachman | 21st January 2025
39:05
39:05
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39:05Will Trump successfully cut a deal with Russia on the Ukraine conflict? Will we see the emergence of a new great power paradigm? Where does an aggressive 'America First' policy leave the rest of the world? The next decade is beset by geopolitical questions following great change in Washington. Against this backdrop, Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Af…
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RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 110: The Economic and Investment Implications of Trump 2.0 with Dan Clifton | 15th January 2025
28:05
28:05
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28:05Donald Trump's election victory brings with it a plethora of unknowns about the next four years. After a highly unusual election cycle, change is on the horizon, from a reordering of the existing power structures of the West to tariffs on China, from Elon Musk's DOGE to deregulation. In this special episode, Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research at …
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RenMac Off-Script: Yields Take Their Toll
17:13
17:13
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17:13RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac Off-Script: Jay Sees Ghost of Christmas Past
25:19
25:19
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25:19RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 109: A year in review | 12th December 2024
38:24
38:24
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38:24Economic resilience, shifting policies, and global uncertainties set the tone for 2024. In this episode, Moz and Daniel reflect on a year marked by strong US growth, challenges in Europe, and the lingering effects of Covid stimulus. They share their perspectives on the key factors shaping the outlook for 2025, from trade tariffs to potential stimul…
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RenMac Off-Script: Bond Bull in a China Shop?
24:33
24:33
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24:33RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 108: Understanding Market Trends with Jeff deGraaf
39:19
39:19
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39:19In this episode of Beyond the Benchmark, Moz is joined by Jeff deGraaf, a leading technical analyst from RenMac, for an insightful discussion on 2024’s market performance and opportunities in 2025, as well as touching on China’s resilience and the global influence of the US dollar. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/31XbkTR Our guest: Jeff deGraaf…
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RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent - (originally produced Feb 2021)
42:26
42:26
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42:26In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.…
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RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice
19:11
19:11
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19:11RenMac discusses: Latest developments with Trump appointments The horserace for Treasury secretary Ongoing weakness in labor demand Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish Impact of political appointments on specific sectorsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 107: The 6 Laws of Technology with Nathan Furr Part 2
28:06
28:06
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28:06Breaking companies down into modular systems that drive value and understanding their self-reinforcing cycles are key in navigating the technological landscape. Nathan Furr takes us through two laws of technology in the next of this three-part series, providing examples of how today’s leaders are utilising these elements to their advantage. This ep…
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RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate
25:17
25:17
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25:17Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss: Expectations between now and election Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery The big losers Path of unified government Inflation expectations Cyclical trade and market’s message Labor market conditions Powell’s future Importance of personnel to discern direction forward…
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RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s endBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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EP 106: 'We've never seen anything like this' Dan Clifton US Election Special | 25th October 2024
55:48
55:48
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55:48Polls on a knife edge, multiple assassination attempts, a convicted felon running for president, a candidate campaigning for just 100 days pre-election; these are just a few of the reasons this US election cycle is unlike anything we have ever seen. Thankfully, Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research at Strategas, is here to bring some clarity to the …
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RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued?
25:44
25:44
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25:44RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and …
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EP 105: Q4 2024 Insight, a changing market narrative | 7th October 2024
40:29
40:29
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40:29As central banks around the world appear to be successfully getting a handle on inflation, we look at the changing market narrative going into the final quarter of 2024. Labour market numbers start to take precedence in shaping market sentiment, while the US gears up for an election that, despite intense volatility, is surprisingly normal in its im…
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RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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