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RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrum ...
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More than just your typical market analysis podcast, EFGAM'S CIO Moz Afzal goes Beyond the benchmark, delving into current topics and global trends with guests and experts from within EFG and further afield. The podcast is released fortnightly.
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show series
 
José Pedro Almeida, Executive in Residence at INSEAD, explains how he helps governments, investors and businesses lead AI and digital transformations, with a particular focus on healthcare. From how to get CEO buy-in to the dos (and don’ts) of measuring success, Jose explains the human role in a GenAI enabled business. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://…
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RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mai…
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What role do global platforms such as Meta have in managing misinformation? What is the difference between misinformation and fake news, and what impact does it have on society? What lessons has Meta learnt from the challenging geopolitical environment of the past few years? Moz talks to Tom Bonsundy O’Bryan, Head of misinformation policy for EMEA …
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RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…
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RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-ba…
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RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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The Trump administration has an infamously dim view on sustainability, but what does this really mean for the landscape of sustainable investing? Melanie Beyeler, Senior Portfolio Manager at New Capital, talks to Moz about why it’s not necessarily all bad news for the segment, and what sustainable investing opportunities may arise out of the new gl…
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In this special episode of Beyond the Benchmark, the tables are turned as EFG’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Moz Afzal, steps into the hot seat. Fresh off being named CIO of the Year at the 2025 WealthBriefing European Awards, Moz shares insights into his journey from junior analyst to managing $25 billion in assets. He discusses the key challe…
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RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding marke…
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Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Is it really the case that the first to invent a technology is the one who benefits from it in the long term? Is it a myth that we can accurately predict the outcomes of new innovation? In this final episode of the 3 part Laws of Technology series, Nathan Furr dispels two oft-held but statistically untrue myths about human innovation. This episode …
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Chinese generative AI contender, DeepSeek, caused huge waves in markets across the globe at the end of January. Investors and analysts were caught flat footed after the Chinese company, operating on inferior hardware, revealed a generative AI comparable to leading Western models while claiming that development costs had been a fraction of their Ame…
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RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-BagBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Will Trump successfully cut a deal with Russia on the Ukraine conflict? Will we see the emergence of a new great power paradigm? Where does an aggressive 'America First' policy leave the rest of the world? The next decade is beset by geopolitical questions following great change in Washington. Against this backdrop, Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Af…
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Donald Trump's election victory brings with it a plethora of unknowns about the next four years. After a highly unusual election cycle, change is on the horizon, from a reordering of the existing power structures of the West to tariffs on China, from Elon Musk's DOGE to deregulation. In this special episode, Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research at …
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Economic resilience, shifting policies, and global uncertainties set the tone for 2024. In this episode, Moz and Daniel reflect on a year marked by strong US growth, challenges in Europe, and the lingering effects of Covid stimulus. They share their perspectives on the key factors shaping the outlook for 2025, from trade tariffs to potential stimul…
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In this episode of Beyond the Benchmark, Moz is joined by Jeff deGraaf, a leading technical analyst from RenMac, for an insightful discussion on 2024’s market performance and opportunities in 2025, as well as touching on China’s resilience and the global influence of the US dollar. Our host, Moz Afzal: https://bit.ly/31XbkTR Our guest: Jeff deGraaf…
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In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.…
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Breaking companies down into modular systems that drive value and understanding their self-reinforcing cycles are key in navigating the technological landscape. Nathan Furr takes us through two laws of technology in the next of this three-part series, providing examples of how today’s leaders are utilising these elements to their advantage. This ep…
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Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss: Expectations between now and election Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery The big losers Path of unified government Inflation expectations Cyclical trade and market’s message Labor market conditions Powell’s future Importance of personnel to discern direction forward…
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Polls on a knife edge, multiple assassination attempts, a convicted felon running for president, a candidate campaigning for just 100 days pre-election; these are just a few of the reasons this US election cycle is unlike anything we have ever seen. Thankfully, Dan Clifton, Head of Policy Research at Strategas, is here to bring some clarity to the …
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RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and …
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As central banks around the world appear to be successfully getting a handle on inflation, we look at the changing market narrative going into the final quarter of 2024. Labour market numbers start to take precedence in shaping market sentiment, while the US gears up for an election that, despite intense volatility, is surprisingly normal in its im…
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