The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”. From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approac…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML. In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump’s agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. …

In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views. In the currency markets, …

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey prov…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research. ----more---- In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could im…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners. ----more---- In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, m…

In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in th…

Paul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy. …

Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary s…

Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failu…

We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often …

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher …

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopo…

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated…

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decr…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half…

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence. ----more---- In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound …

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics. ----more---- ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. Th…

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian eco…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets. ----more---- In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and …

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his p…

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of gl…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. …

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group. ----more---- Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeff prov…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners. ----more---- In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador. Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research ser…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research. Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. ----more---- In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and asses…

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clie…

In conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points. ----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively be…

This latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election. ----more---- IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times. Mike outlines the probabl…

The IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- In this podcast Brian Pellegrini discusses the political factors that influence the recurring problems relating to Congress passing legislation to raise the US debt ceiling. Brian reflects on the various fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy dilemmas …

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast Helen reflects on Rishi Sunak’s premiership so far and assesses the prospects for the UK economy and financial markets in the year ahead. She discusses the outlook for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy. Helen compares the outlook for inte…

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Patrick Perret-Green, the Founder of PPG Macro. ----more---- In this podcast Patrick argues that the impact of the problems in the banking sector is likely to be highly disinflationary as the contraction in credit creation outweighs the creation of money by the US Fed. Whilst the stock of money supply remains extrem…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ben Rabidoux, the Founder of North Cove Advisors. ----more---- They discuss the importance of the housing sector as a driver of consumer spending and broader economic growth in Canada. The Canadian government is trying to achieve a soft-landing with the central bank providing an appropriate degree of monetary tighten…

David Osman of IRF is joined by Michael Churchill, the founder of Churchill Research. ----more---- In this podcast Michael discusses the economic and financial implications of the worst bond yield inversion for 40 years. He argues that the curve inversion is saying that the Fed is overdoing it. Historically, that is a recession predictor – albeit w…

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. ----more---- This is the fifth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series. In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the lively debate over US inflation …

David Osman of IRF is joined by David Ranson, the president of HCWE & Co. for the latest episode of the IRF Podcast. Here David Ranson discusses the misunderstood causes of inflation and the consequent undermining of sound money as a store value. He highlights the importance of the quality of money, as opposed to the quantity. ----more---- David al…

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the fourth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google. ----more---- In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusin…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory to discuss the performance of the US dollar in 2022 and indicate how he expects it to perform against other major currencies in 2023. ----more---- Ron compares the similar trends in the US and UK government bond markets and points out the implications for both interest rate…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research. Musha Research was founded in 2009 following Ryoji Musha's long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor p…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. ----more---- In this podcast Jeffrey provid…

IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the third episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google. ----more---- In this edition experienced market practitioner, JP Smith examines the analysis and views of the IRF's best-in-class Indepe…

In this latest episode of the IRF Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google, JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Dr Peter Warburton, Founder of Economic Perspectives, to discuss the structural outlook for the UK economy in the wake of the recent budget. ----more---- Economic Perspectives take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook,…

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang Co-Founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China. ----more---- J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors. In this podcast, Anne disc…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Zekeriya Ozturk, the Founder of iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory. What does the future hold for Turkish politics, the economy and the financial markets? In a world that has become more divided between East and West, Turkey’s position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it even greater importa…

We are delighted to bring you the next episode of IRF's new podcast series, Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, hosted by JP Smith.----more---- JP is an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity & Chief Strategist at Pictet and Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. This podcast ser…

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro. ----more---- In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out im…