If it's in the news, it's in the price. By the time an idea hits the front page, the smart money has moved on. For savvy investors, the best story is the unreported story. It’s the ideas yet to be fully discounted by the markets that matter. Join Fat Tail Investment Research's Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka as they look beyond the headlines and investigate what the market hasn't yet priced in. That's where the best opportunities lie. For more investment insights, check out Fat Tail Inves ...
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Looking for Value on the ASX: Domino's, Cettire, Nick Scali, Commonwealth Bank, Carsales
44:46
44:46
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44:46To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here. For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia. Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advic…
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Stock Markets Hit Record Highs But Is a Correction Coming?
41:59
41:59
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41:59In his last appearance on What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan discussed the Santa rally. Festivities have since dragged into the new year. At the start of December, Greg said this: ‘Everything is about probability. And I think the probability of the Fed or the Reserve Bank pulling off a soft landing when you’ve hiked rates so sharply is quite low. B…
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Does the Uranium Rally Have Legs | Talking Lithium, Uranium, Iron Ore with Geologist James Cooper
39:04
39:04
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39:042024 could be a crucial year for commodities. So thinks Fat Tail's resident commodities guru James Cooper. And he outlined several reasons why. US election. China stimulus. Rate cuts. Falling US dollar. Rising India. Any of these events can ignite commodities in 2024. James joined Kiryll Prakapenka on this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In to …
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'Get Amongst It': 5 ASX Small Caps on Callum Newman's Radar in 2024
47:24
47:24
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47:24'Get amongst it.' Don’t get caught up in predictions. Nobody really knows what’s coming this year. Proceed knowing a lot of excellent risk versus reward stocks are out there still. The small cap sector, especially, has ‘heaps of opportunities’. So don’t despair you’ve missed anything. Get revved up. That was Callum Newman’s message on the first epi…
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Bull Case for Gold PLUS Brian Chu's 5 ASX Gold Stocks to Watch
58:28
58:28
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58:28To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here. For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia. Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advic…
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Bull Case for ASX Small Caps With Callum Newman
52:16
52:16
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52:16In this episode, Kiryll Prakapenka grills Fat Tail's small caps expert Callum Newman about Callum's optimistic outlook for Aussie small caps. Topics discussed: Why Greg Canavan called Callum the 'most positive man in finance' Why Callum thinks 'all the ingredients are there for the Aussie stock market to start firing on all cylinders' How macroecon…
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Retail Stocks Ask: Where's the Inflation?
48:50
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48:50In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discuss: - RBA thinks Australia’s inflation is ‘increasingly homegrown and demand driven’ - But are ASX retail stocks saying something different? - What do recent updates from Accent Group, Lovisa, Kogan, Temple & Webster, and Nick Scali suggest? - What is going on wi…
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In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discussed: Whether or not the US inflation data was significant Australia’s historic wages growth and what it means for interest rates Valuations of the Big Four banks They look cheap, but there’s more to it Outlook for cashed up Aussie gold miners Unappreciated insig…
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Market Still Mispricing Risk of Recession
41:52
41:52
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41:52To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here. For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia. Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advic…
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This is Not A Capitulation Low. After the Rally, More Pain Ahead
55:17
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55:17In this episode of What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka provide an in-depth examination of the 2023 market to date. They discuss the nuances that suggest this isn't the capitulation low that many are anticipating. Leveraging data-driven insights and expert interviews, the episode offers a thorough analysis for those looking to u…
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US Economy About to Hit the Wall? | Lacy Hunt's Warning and the 2023 Global Asset Standout
47:14
47:14
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47:14Greg Canavan dives into the current state of the major US and Aussie stock indices in this episode of What’s Not Priced In... The prevailing downtrends are signaling a significant shift, with tight monetary policy already impacting market liquidity. And it’s only just starting. Lacy Hunt’s latest quarterly outlook shows you the US economy is about …
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Uncovering Opportunities: Junior Miners Firesale! With Geologist James Cooper | What's Not Priced In
36:14
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36:14Ready to explore hidden gems in the world of junior miners? Join me in this episode as I interview James Cooper, Fat Tail Investment Research's resident geologist and seasoned commodities expert. James and I delve into the current firesale of junior miners in Australia, dissecting the opportunities and potential risks. Is now the opportune moment t…
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What’s Not Priced In Special Episode: ‘If I Wanted To Destroy An Economy…’
32:54
32:54
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32:54In this special episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg shares a recent interview he did with South Australian Senator Alex Antic that has previously only been available to our paying subscribers. With another example of the absurdity of the Net Zero push coming from AI, Greg believes it’s time to really drill into whether there is in fact a sound ag…
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What's Not Priced In EP20: Stocks: Get ready for a bounce, not a bottom
36:24
36:24
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36:24Market jitters. Bond sell-offs. Extreme fear. Rising volatility. Panic at the disco? Panic or not, it’s certainly getting exciting. In the 20th episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and I cover the latest moves in the bond market, the Reserve Bank’s latest decision, fearful market sentiment, and the outlook for key commodities. Greg thinks …
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What's Not Priced in EP19: Major Stock Indexes Breaking Down
50:11
50:11
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50:11Only 40 stocks in the ASX 200 are in the green this month. The rest are either neutral or in the red. Some, like Star Entertainment, are hitting all-time lows in September. Others, like Lake Resources and Brainchip, are registering new 52-week lows. Markets are blaming rising bond yields. So where do things stand? Will interest rates remain ‘higher…
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What's Not Priced In EP18: The Fed is About to Be Blindsided
45:56
45:56
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45:56The US Fed held rates steady but flagged more tightening ahead. And markets finally caught on that the central bank is deadly serious about taming inflation. So are we entering a new era of 'higher for longer' interest rates? As Greg Canavan and I mentioned before, when consensus forms in markets, it pays to listen to your inner contrarian. Rising …
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What's Not Priced In EP17: Interest rates, Lower and Sooner?
50:49
50:49
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50:49Is inflation re-accelerating? Will rising oil prices push central banks to raise rates further? Is a recession now unlikely? And are markets overvalued? These are the meaty questions we grappled with this episode. As for what's not priced in? Recession remains a risk the market continues to under-price, at its peril. To learn about Greg's premium s…
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What's Not Priced In EP16: A Huge Hole Found in the Energy Transition
49:27
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49:27In this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In, I interview data scientist Aiden Morrison. Aiden has been making waves on Twitter recently by digging into CSIRO and AEMO data to expose some major flaws in the energy transition. I was intrigued by his findings and asked him to come on and share what he has discovered. Without wanting to sound hyperb…
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What’s Not Priced In EP15: Australia's Era of Energy Poverty
46:51
46:51
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46:51Earnings season is nearly over but everyone is talking about inflation. The latest monthly CPI reading came in lower than expected, and the market reacted well. But is this warranted? And what's the bond market telling us? Inflation IS cooling, but at hte expense of households. The US consumer is running down their savings and the amount Aussie hou…
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What's Not Priced In EP14: When to Sell Stocks (It's Not Easy)
57:57
57:57
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57:57What an episode we have for you this week -- filled with lots of stock analysis and hard-earned wisdom. Today, we assess the winners and losers of the reporting season so far. We profiled Coles, Woollies, Altium, WiseTech, Carsales, Data3, and Hub24. Even Domino's gets a mention -- the tech stock disguised as a pizza merchant. Or is it a pizza merc…
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What's Not Priced In (BONUS EPISODE TWO): Net Zero Insanity with Cory Bernardi
35:04
35:04
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35:04In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective. In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to sh…
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What's Not Priced In EP13: AVOID: ASX Iron Ore Stocks In Structural Decline
34:38
34:38
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34:38Huge debt, ageing population -- is China past its peak? So ran a recent headline in The Australian. And usually when such headlines hit the front pages, the news is priced in. This episode, Greg and I assess the worries surrounding China's ailing economy. Do Aussie investors have anything to fret about? You'll have to watch the full episode, but Gr…
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What’s Not Priced In EP12: The Momentum Trade Is Breaking Down
50:13
50:13
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50:13Disinflation versus deflation. Momentum versus fundamentals. Price versus earnings. Today's episode is all about contrasts. We discuss the diverging economic fortunes of the US and China, momentum trading pulling valuations away from fundamentals, and the stagnant Aussie market. Greg then explains why commodities still offer long-term value, explor…
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What's Not Priced In: Net Zero Insanity (BONUS EPISODE)
1:14:08
1:14:08
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1:14:08In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective. In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to sh…
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What's Not Priced In EP11: Aussie Stocks More Expensive Than You Think
43:22
43:22
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43:22There is no such thing as a free lunch. So don’t feast if you’re not prepared to foot the bill. With the market betting on a soft landing despite high interest rates winding their way through the economy, are markets expecting a free lunch? And are they prepared for when the bill comes due? In today’s episode, we discuss the outlook for interest ra…
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What's Not Priced In EP10: How to Value Stocks
1:00:32
1:00:32
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1:00:32It's the stock valuation special! Two weeks ago we said we'd do an episode on valuation methods if viewers were interested. After leaving many enthusiastic comments, it looks like you were. So, here it is! In this episode Greg and I tackle one of the biggest questions of them all -- what is a stock worth? And how do you value it? Enjoy! To learn ab…
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What's Not Priced In EP9: Look Out! Aussie Stocks AREN’T Cheap
56:22
56:22
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56:22In this week’s episode, I talk to Katana Asset Management Portfolio Manager Romano Sala Tenna. Katana has generated long term outperformance (resulting in significant compounding effects) and is currenting sitting on a 35% cash weighting. He explains why they are cautious on the market right now and what it would take to put that cash to work. As w…
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Australia has a new Reserve Bank governor! But don't let that distract you from what matters. This episode, we ponder the the implications of the positive inflation data in the US. The key question is the cause behind the disinflation -- falling aggregate demand or normalising supply? The former doesn't bode well for markets. We then discussed the …
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What's Not Priced In EP7: Market's Asleep To Jaws of Death?
46:05
46:05
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46:05In today’s episode. Greg and I struggle to find the right analogy to explain the bullish sentiment over in the US. Are investors asleep at the wheel hurtling toward a hard economic reality? Greg thinks tech valuations are overstretched and his chart of the week illustrates why. Turning to Australia, we discussed the much more grounded sentiment of …
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What's Not Priced In EP6: Gold Price Mystery Explained
54:15
54:15
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54:15The determining factor behind the gold price and what it says about the outlook for gold. Why real rates matter. The latest inflation and retail sales data. Retail stocks rebounded this week, but don't get too excited the bottom is in just yet. And we look at two stocks selling cheese and chicken. One of the stocks hasn’t aged nearly as well as a g…
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What’s Not Priced In EP5: ASX Correction, Liquidity, Rate Cycle Lessons
55:14
55:14
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55:14Recent profit downgrades suggest an ASX market correction is imminent. Forward orders are signaling a slowdown in business conditions. A prominent magazine cover serves as contrarian indicator inflation peak is already priced in. Why the stock market usually rises during a rate hiking cycle … and why it falls when the cycle eases. And a ‘nerdy’ liq…
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What’s Not Priced In EP4: Extreme Greed, Aussie Mortgage Cliff, Neglected REITs
48:29
48:29
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48:29What’s Not Priced In EP4: Extreme Greed, Aussie Mortgage Cliff, Neglected REITs Fear & Greed Index hits extreme greed level despite narrow tech rally: correction looming? May Aussie unemployment down but 'woeful' labour productivity suggests businesses will shed workers to preserve margins. Markets are underpricing impact of Aussie mortgage cliff. …
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What's Not Priced In EP3: Recession, Rate Hikes, Aussie Banks
46:57
46:57
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46:57What's Not Priced In EP3: Recession, Rate Hikes, Aussie Banks The Reserve Bank's historically rapid hiking cycle risks breaking things as the Aussie yield curve inverts. Ominous labour productivity numbers spell gloom for the unemployment rate. Spotlight on Qantas and Seek. And does Commonwealth Bank warrant its premium? To learn about Greg's premi…
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What's Not Priced In EP2: Commodities, China, and Coal Stocks
1:04:28
1:04:28
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1:04:28Bond market saying Aussie economy heading towards recession. The resolution of the debt ceiling impasse may lead to a liquidity crunch. Bob Farrell's seventh rule of investing and the tech rally. Are markets wrong on China? And are coal stocks good value or value traps? To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here. For…
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What's Not Priced In EP1: Nvidia, AI Hype, and Interest Rate Bets
53:47
53:47
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53:47Tech stocks are surging. Nvidia nears a trillion-dollar valuation. AI hype grows. But is this all largely priced in? While the tech sector rallies, the retail sector struggles. Are consumer discretionary stocks set for further pain? And why are markets wrong about interest rates. To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go…
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