Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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A fun examination of the dark, the scary, the weird and the unknown. Each week I take a look at topics like weird history, conspiracy, cryptids and more. I try to bring a little bit of levity to these strange stories with my own brand of humor.
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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In this podcast, we‘ll take a look at the people, technology, and culture behind one of the world‘s most powerful and important computing platforms, the Mainframe. Expect interviews, discussions, and interesting tidbits along the way, with your hosts, Frank and Jeff.
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E71: Risk Taking, Contrarianism, and Growth [Byrne on Interintellect]
1:39:33
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1:39:33In this episode, Byrne Hobart joined Matjaž Leonardis in Austin for an Interintellect salon — a platform for 21st-century intellectual discourse—to discuss his new book Boom: Bubbles at the End of Stagnation, exploring how technological advancements, market paradoxes, and historical and modern financial bubbles — from the Manhattan Project to crypt…
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E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart
1:05:37
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1:05:37In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in t…
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Killing viruses with light, with Jacob Swett
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1:01:43In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically redu…
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E141: The Bronze Age Collapse and History's Selective Memory
1:06:42
1:06:42
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1:06:42Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja where they discuss the Bronze Age collapse, technological advancements in ancient civilizations, and the nuanced history of the Roman Empire, along with a detailed analysis of contemporary geopolitical dynamics, particularly focusing on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and i…
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Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja on this week’s Live Players. They discuss the potential industrial revolutions in history, particularly in the Roman Empire and Song Dynasty China, their technological advancements, economic factors, and the reasons these revolutions didn't reach full fruition. — 📰 Be noti…
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Life insurance and your money, with Zac Townsend
1:20:53
1:20:53
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1:20:53In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zac Townsend, a serial founder and CEO of Meanwhile, a fully regulated life insurance company operating in Bitcoin. They explore the differences between life and property insurance, explain why term life is essential financial protection everyone should consider, and dive into the tax benefit…
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E139: America’s Tech Strategy w/ Qasar Younis, Sen. Jack Reed, and Josh Wolfe
33:12
33:12
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33:12This week, we’re featuring a panel discussion from the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum with Josh Wolfe (Lux Capital), Senator Jack Reed (RI), and Qasar Younis, Founder and CEO, Applied Intuition They address talent attraction and retention, China's espionage and surveillance state, immigration policies, dual-use technologies, and the challenges and stra…
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Fixing government technology, with Mikey Dickerson
53:39
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53:39In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making…
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E138: Palantir CEO Alex Karp & Rep. Ritchie Torres on Innovation & The West | Hill and Valley Forum 2024
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34:02
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34:02Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's fearless culture, and the importance of contrarianism in driving innovation at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️…
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E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution]
1:23:35
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1:23:35This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, …
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Understanding and wielding power in local government, with Daniel Golliher
59:35
59:35
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59:35In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Daniel Golliher, founder of Maximum New York, to discuss the opaque mechanics of political power and how everyday people can effectively engage with government systems. They explore the stark gap between formal political science degrees and how politics actually works, practical tactics for …
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E70: OpenAI’s Open Source Strategy, Volatility & Tariffs, and Automation’s Consequences w/ Byrne Hobart
1:06:31
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1:06:31This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore how technological advancements, policy shifts like Trump's tariffs and U.S. industrial policy, the re-industrialization of America, the influence of institutions like Harvard, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar, and the rise of OpenAI are reshaping global markets, businesses, and the future of ar…
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The AI energy bottleneck, with Tim Fist
1:06:05
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1:06:05In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single clu…
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E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives]
1:01:19
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1:01:19This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/ex…
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E134: Atheism’s Decline, Consciousness, and The New Right w/ Ross Douthat
58:48
58:48
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58:48Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of …
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E133: China’s Energy Problem w/ Samo Burja
58:49
58:49
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58:49Today on Upstream, we’re releasing a 2024 conversation between Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja. They discuss China's approach to energy security, exploring why China isn't pursuing energy independence despite significant oil production capability and the potential for further development. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication:…
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A lively conversation with Matt Leming, Anthony Papageorgiou, and Dale Lane about Kafka not only running on z/OS, but making the most of it alongside MQ. Additional Reading Material: Anthony's blog post abotu mainframe to kafka options: https://medium.com/@anthonypapageorgiou/from-cobol-to-kafka-ac8cfb96f238 Dale Lane's blog (all things Kafka): htt…
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Taking stablecoins seriously, with Haseeb Qureshi
1:08:05
1:08:05
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1:08:05In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit ac…
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E69: Good vs Bad Bubbles, Stagnation, and Bitcoin [Byrne on Bankless]
1:45:48
1:45:48
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1:45:48In this episode of The Riff, we are releasing a conversation Byrne Hobart had on the Bankless podcast about Byrne's book Bitcoin, exploring the provocative idea that speculative Bubbles—while sometimes destructive—can be powerful drivers of innovation, with examples from history and present-day trends like AI and crypto, ultimately highlighting the…
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E132: AI Managers, US vs China Analysis, and AI Art w/ Byrne Hobart
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53:18
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53:18Today on Upstream, we’re sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. …
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The past, present, and future of AI, with Stripe
1:33:48
1:33:48
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1:33:48Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emily Sands, Head of Information at Stripe, to discuss how they leverage AI to process over $1.4 trillion annually, while navigating the complex web of merchants, banks, and payment rails that facilitate online commerce. Patrick and Emily cover how Stripe’s layered stack of AI combats sophisticated card testi…
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E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith
1:09:57
1:09:57
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1:09:57Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This epis…
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E68: Chinese Free Trade, AI Managers, and Why AI Art is Art
53:14
53:14
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53:14This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological change on global trade, AI’s disruption of senior roles, the debate over AI-generated art, and market dynamics—particularly in live entertainment ticketing—offering a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our qu…
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E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart
1:02:20
1:02:20
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1:02:20This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambition…
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No, poor people aren’t funding your credit card rewards
1:06:47
1:06:47
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1:06:47In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants…
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E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson
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1:05:20
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1:05:20Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our s…
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E67: Hidden X-Risk, Network Effects of Elon’s Empire, and American Hegemony
58:56
58:56
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58:56This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore Donald Trump Jr.'s financial leverage of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's shift toward AI existential risks, Elon Musk's strategic decisions with Twitter, potential U.S. recessions, political party shifts, China's AI policy, and the broader impact of these developments on Wall Street and Main St…
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E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith
55:36
55:36
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55:36Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our sh…
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Points, profits, and packed planes, with Gary Leff
1:31:27
1:31:27
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1:31:27Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Gary Leff, the author of "View from the Wing", to discuss the economic systems behind airlines and loyalty programs. They discuss how airlines manage to stay profitable despite razor-thin margins, the economics of frequent flyer programs, and why these programs often generate more value than the airlines them…
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E127: The Tech Right and How The Left Can Fix Itself w/ Jon Askonas
48:10
48:10
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48:10Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and tra…
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E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar
1:17:05
1:17:05
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1:17:05Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems. They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, in…
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Tax the dirt, with Lars Doucet & Greg Miller
1:17:07
1:17:07
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1:17:07Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and…
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E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart
58:51
58:51
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58:51Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11,…
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E66: The Politics of Alex Karp and Palantir, DOGE Breakdown, and AI vs Blogging
56:30
56:30
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56:30This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the effects of technological change on media and society, covering topics such as the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey …
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E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks
1:12:09
1:12:09
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1:12:09Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode from Modern Relationships which originally aired on February 28, 2025 where Erik Torenberg interviews philosophy professors Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks about their unconventional marriage, the role of philosophy in their relationship, the impact of their public profile, and how they balance personal…
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A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawal
41:13
41:13
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41:13Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical …
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E123: Trump & The Game of Populism w/ Samo Burja
59:15
59:15
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59:15Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the limitations of populist politics, the difficulty populists face in effecting change despite electoral wins, and the influence of digital democracy on modern governance. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking ou…
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E122: Victor Davis Hanson on What Trump Thinks of Zelensky and Predicting Geopolitics
37:51
37:51
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37:51In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape …
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AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem Azhar
1:13:53
1:13:53
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1:13:53Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from histor…
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E121: Kevin Kelly on What Makes Us Human in an AI World
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50:16In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing Erik Torenberg’s interview from 2023 with Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired Magazine, discussing Kevin’s new advice book, the impact of gratitude, and how technology, especially AI, interacts with and shapes human existence and culture. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publi…
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E65: Bill Gates’s Persona, Against Copying Berkshire Hathaway, and Making the Economy More Like Chipotle
1:01:15
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1:01:15This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg examine why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can't be successfully replicated today, analyze Bill Gates's public versus private persona, and consider how economic growth manifests as "premium mediocre" options like Chipotle. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly…
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E120: Why Europe Matters for America’s Future w/ Samo Burja
1:00:10
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1:00:10This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the widespread interest in U.S. politics and its global influence, particularly in Western and European countries, the internet's role in synchronizing political and cultural norms, and potential changes in European political landscapes influenced by American ideologies and media. — 📰 Be …
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E119: Free Trade, AI Integration, and Shopify Q4 Results w/ Shopify President Harley Finkelstein
58:43
58:43
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58:43Erik Torenberg interviews Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, discussing tariffs, political shifts, Shopify's earnings, and the evolution of entrepreneurship. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/Turp…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-indep…
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E64: US vs China’s Strategies, Uber’s Growth Model, AI Supply Chains
1:03:04
1:03:04
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1:03:04This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological inflection points and examine how legal frameworks mask continued globalization despite apparent retrenchment, explores US-China dynamics, analyzes AI industry structure and emerging models, and considers Uber's strategic positioning against autonomous vehicles. --- 🙏 Help shape our s…
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E118: Ending Woke, Why Elon Wins, and A Return to Innovation w/ Marc Andreessen [Moment of Zen repost]
1:48:29
1:48:29
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1:48:29Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg discuss the ongoing political and cultural shift in America, covering topics such as preference falsification, the role of DEI in tech and other sectors, the influence of group chats, and the emerging dynamic in politics with highly capable appointments in the new administration. — 📰Be notified early when Turpenti…
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E117: The Future of Martian & Interplanetary Societies w/ Samo Burja
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1:01:25This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the economic, political, and cultural implications of colonizing Mars and the Moon, discussing space treaties, potential Martian and Earth societal divergence, and the technological advancements driving humanity's future as a multi-planetary species. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine'…
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Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke Faux
1:27:03
1:27:03
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1:27:03In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up, to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether w…
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E63: OpenAI Deep Research, Elon’s Potential Hostile Takeover, and AI Agent Companies
59:04
59:04
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59:04This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological advancements, particularly OpenAI's research, Elon Musk’s $97 billion offer to acquire its controlling nonprofit, and the implications for business, jobs, regulation, and Musk's strategies with X and Doja. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick list…
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E116: Stuck Academia, US vs China, and Why Startups Work
1:03:43
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1:03:43Today, we're re-releasing an episode from 2023 where Erik Torenberg sits down with physicist and startup founder Steve Hsu on topics including the ideological shift in academia, the impact of AI on labor, China's technological advancements and geopolitical position, and the global fertility decline. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new…
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