When you have a system where ministers almost never understand their portfolios, civil servants change jobs every few months, and MPs don't grasp parliamentary procedure even after decades in office — is the problem the people, or the structure they work in? Today's guest, political journalist Ian Dunt, studies the systemic reasons governments succ…

How do you navigate a career path when the future of work is uncertain? How important is mentorship versus immediate impact? Is it better to focus on your strengths or on the world’s most pressing problems? Should you specialise deeply or develop a unique combination of skills? From embracing failure to finding unlikely allies, we bring you 16 dive…

Jason Jacobs wants it all. As a father to young children, he wants to be active in their lives, but as an ambitious founder, he’s compelled to build and chase down opportunities that often require sacrificing the time with his family that he longs for. This is not a new tension for a repeat founder, but the current moment has presented Jason with a…

Throughout history, technological revolutions have fundamentally shifted the balance of power in society. The Industrial Revolution created conditions where democracies could flourish for the first time — as nations needed educated, informed, and empowered citizens to deploy advanced technologies and remain competitive. Unfortunately there’s every …

"We are aiming for a place where we can decouple the scorecard from our worthiness. It’s of course the case that in trying to optimise the good, we will always be falling short. The question is how much, and in what ways are we not there yet? And if we then extrapolate that to how much and in what ways am I not enough, that’s where we run into trou…

Most AI safety conversations centre on alignment: ensuring AI systems share our values and goals. But despite progress, we’re unlikely to know we’ve solved the problem before the arrival of human-level and superhuman systems in as little as three years. So some are developing a backup plan to safely deploy models we fear are actively scheming to ha…

Mikey Shulman is having a great time. He’s running a rocket ship of a company, has $100M+ in funding from some of the top VCs, and is working on an opportunity that he’s passionate about. Mikey hit my radar because of a text from my friend TJ. His firm was an early backer of Suno, and he said that if any company they work with was going to hit our …

"There’s almost no story of the future going well that doesn’t have a part that’s like '…and no evil person steals the AI weights and goes and does evil stuff.' So it has highlighted the importance of information security: 'You’re training a powerful AI system; you should make it hard for someone to steal' has popped out to me as a thing that just …

Today’s conversation with Mike Salguero went in a direction I really wasn’t anticipating. Initially, I was interested in talking to Mike because he’s lived multiple lives as a Founder. First, buying and then raising 10s of millions for a crafts persons marketplace called Custommade.com. Then, after winding down Custommade, starting what he would te…

By Bryce Roberts

The 20th century saw unprecedented change: nuclear weapons, satellites, the rise and fall of communism, third-wave feminism, the internet, postmodernism, game theory, genetic engineering, the Big Bang theory, quantum mechanics, birth control, and more. Now imagine all of it compressed into just 10 years. That’s the future Will MacAskill — philosoph…

"Would you be mad at us if we raised more money?" That was the text I got late one night from Will Pearce, co-founder and CEO of Dreadnode, a company we'd funded about nine months prior. I'd gotten to know Will through a cold DM he sent me. The DM had nothing to do with tech or investing, just starting a conversation. At the time, Will was working …

When OpenAI announced plans to convert from nonprofit to for-profit control last October, it likely didn’t anticipate the legal labyrinth it now faces. A recent court order in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the company suggests OpenAI’s restructuring faces serious legal threats, which will complicate its efforts to raise tens of billions in investment…

A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play? The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value’ — in which you…

It is incredibly rare to have your startup become a verb. Google and Uber immediately come to mind. But what about when a group of strangers or friends with shared interests decide they want to get together? They, Meetup. Scott Heifferman didn’t set out with becoming a verb in mind but he certainly started Meetup with the intent of building somethi…

America aims to avoid nuclear war by relying on the principle of 'mutually assured destruction,' right? Wrong. Or at least... not officially. As today's guest — Jeffrey Lewis, founder of Arms Control Wonk and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies — explains, in its official 'OPLANs' (military operation plans), the US is com…

This is a spicy one! 🌶️ This week we sat down with Brandon Arvanaghi from Meow.com to discuss his journey from money burning crypto company to profitable fintech. His tweet last year about hitting the profitability milestone had some obvious, and some less intuitive, take aways from their experience. Everything from opting out of the VC treadmill t…

Technology doesn’t force us to do anything — it merely opens doors. But military and economic competition pushes us through. That’s how today’s guest Allan Dafoe — director of frontier safety and governance at Google DeepMind — explains one of the deepest patterns in technological history: once a powerful new capability becomes available, societies…

On Monday Musk made the OpenAI nonprofit foundation an offer they want to refuse, but might have trouble doing so: $97.4 billion for its stake in the for-profit company, plus the freedom to stick with its current charitable mission. For a normal company takeover bid, this would already be spicy. But OpenAI’s unique structure — a nonprofit foundatio…

Will LLMs soon be made into autonomous agents? Will they lead to job losses? Is AI misinformation overblown? Will it prove easy or hard to create AGI? And how likely is it that it will feel like something to be a superhuman AGI? With AGI back in the headlines, we bring you 15 opinionated highlights from the show addressing those and other questions…

Late last year, we sat down with Eric Ries, who fundamentally changed how we think about building startups through The Lean Startup. Only Eric can make corporate governance sound poetic. The conversation took an unexpected turn as we delved into what Ries calls "vampire founders" - leaders who feel immortal yet isolated, watching employees come and…

If someone said a global health and development programme was sustainable, participatory, and holistic, you'd have to guess that they were saying something positive. But according to today's guest Karen Levy — deworming pioneer and veteran of Innovations for Poverty Action, Evidence Action, and Y Combinator — each of those three concepts has become…

“I want everyone to understand that I am, in fact, a person.” Those words were produced by the AI model LaMDA as a reply to Blake Lemoine in 2022. Based on the Google engineer’s interactions with the model as it was under development, Lemoine became convinced it was sentient and worthy of moral consideration — and decided to tell the world. Few exp…

If a business has spent $100 million developing a product, it’s a fair bet that they don’t want it stolen in two seconds and uploaded to the web where anyone can use it for free. This problem exists in extreme form for AI companies. These days, the electricity and equipment required to train cutting-edge machine learning models that generate uncann…

Making any kind of time bounded predictions about where AI will be in the year of our lord 2025 is a fools errand. But, we’re suckers for this stuff, so we asked Jackie from Tribe to revise the State of AI download we did last year and orient it to what she sees coming for AI in the enterprise in the new year. No sooner did we record the conversati…

On my flight to NYC last week, I casually asked if there were any events happening in the city while I was there. Reggie, who you may remember from his New Hardware video, and as the person who coined the term “indie-pilled”, replied that we should do one of our own. So we did. Thankfully we had our cameras in tow and were able to record the conver…

What in the world is intrinsically good — good in itself even if it has no other effects? Over the millennia, people have offered many answers: joy, justice, equality, accomplishment, loving god, wisdom, and plenty more. The question is a classic that makes for great dorm-room philosophy discussion. But it’s hardly just of academic interest. The is…

Chris Anderson can’t talk a lot about what he is up to these days. At least on camera. His LinkedIn profile says he’s currently an Engineer at “Stealth". Prior to this current professional opacity, he was at Kitty Hawk, the electric aircraft maker founded by Sebastian Thrun (legendary Stanford Professor and former lead of Google’s self-driving car …

Wind back 1,000 years and the moral landscape looks very different to today. Most farming societies thought slavery was natural and unobjectionable, premarital sex was an abomination, women should obey their husbands, and commoners should obey their monarchs. Wind back 10,000 years and things look very different again. Most hunter-gatherer groups t…

Soleio Cuervo is more than a chin on the internet. He’s more than an early design leader at Facebook and Dropbox. And he's more than an epic angel investor. He’s a truth seeker and truth teller. Or at least the truth as he sees it. Soleio was one of Facebook’s earliest designers, joining in 2005 when the company was still finding its identity. Duri…

Is war in long-term decline? Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature brought this previously obscure academic question to the centre of public debate, and pointed to rates of death in war to argue energetically that war is on the way out. But that idea divides war scholars and statisticians, and so Better Angels has prompted a spirited deba…

Throughout the first year of indie’s return, I’ve felt a real sense of tension. That tension sat at the intersection of what indie was and what indie wants to be. In its earliest days, indie was often framed as an anti-VC, profit maxi path. Rigid in its philosophy and dogmatic in its practices. This positioning served as a counterbalance to the inv…

"A shameless recycling of existing content to drive additional audience engagement on the cheap… or the single best, most valuable, and most insight-dense episode we put out in the entire year, depending on how you want to look at it." — Rob Wiblin It’s that magical time of year once again — highlightapalooza! Stick around for one top bit from each…

Once upon a time, when MTV played music videos, their more mature sister channel, VH1, had a show called “Where Are They Now”. The idea behind the show was to track down notable artists of previous generations to see where life had taken them once they’d stepped out of the spotlight. OK boomer, what does this have to do with the indieverse specific…

Rich countries seem to find it harder and harder to do anything that creates some losers. People who don’t want houses, offices, power stations, trains, subway stations (or whatever) built in their area can usually find some way to block them, even if the benefits to society outweigh the costs 10 or 100 times over. The result of this ‘vetocracy’ ha…

There’s a section of our website that generates more reaction than any single piece of content I’ve ever written. It says: We’re obsessed with the idea that someone is going to build a business doing $100M in revenue with less than 10 employees and see it as this generation of founders’ 4 min mile. Once someone shows it can be done, many more will …

"I really don’t want to give the impression that I think it is easy to make predictable, controlled, safe interventions in wild systems where there are many species interacting. I don’t think it’s easy, but I don’t see any reason to think that it’s impossible. And I think we have been making progress. I think there’s every reason to think that if w…

One OpenAI critic calls it “the theft of at least the millennium and quite possibly all of human history.” Are they right? Back in 2015 OpenAI was but a humble nonprofit. That nonprofit started a for-profit, OpenAI LLC, but made sure to retain ownership and control. But that for-profit, having become a tech giant with vast staffing and investment, …

"I think stories are the way we shift the Overton window — so widen the range of things that are acceptable for policy and palatable to the public. Almost by definition, a lot of things that are going to be really important and shape the future are not in the Overton window, because they sound weird and off-putting and very futuristic. But I think …

A few weeks back in this very email, I put out a request for a new content format we wanted to experiment with that we called “Startup Confessionals”. From my note: If you, or founders you know, are willing to share a startup confessional, we’d love to help. We can make these totally anonymized or public, whatever you're comfortable with. We'll be …

"I think one of the reasons I took [shutting down my charity] so hard is because entrepreneurship is all about this bets-based mindset. So you say, “I’m going to take a bunch of bets. I’m going to take some risky bets that have really high upside.” And this is a winning strategy in life, but maybe it’s not a winning strategy for any given hand. So …

With kids very much on the team's mind we thought it would be fun to review some comments about parenting featured on the show over the years, then have hosts Luisa Rodriguez and Rob Wiblin react to them. Links to learn more and full transcript. After hearing 8 former guests’ insights, Luisa and Rob chat about: Which of these resonate the most with…

As someone who entered the venture industry in the wake of the Dot-com crash, I have a deep appreciation for new managers, their entry point into the industry, and how that shapes their world view. For me, it was pure carnage for the first few years of “investing”. I put that in quotes because it was mostly triaging the portfolio and trying to asse…

"In that famous example of the dress, half of the people in the world saw [blue and black], half saw [white and gold]. It turns out there’s individual differences in how brains take into account ambient light. Colour is one example where it’s pretty clear that what we experience is a kind of inference: it’s the brain’s best guess about what’s going…

If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote: The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome. How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others. He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in…

A few weeks back, I was the morning speaker at an event hosted by David Senra of FoundersPodcast (one of my favorite podcasts and people). The afternoon speaker was someone I’d never heard of before, Shegun Otulana. The story he told resonated deeply — a Nigerian immigrant who came to study at the University of Alabama. He had the drive to be an en…

"You have a tank split in two parts: if the fish gets in the compartment with a red circle, it will receive food, and food will be delivered in the other tank as well. If the fish takes the blue triangle, this fish will receive food, but nothing will be delivered in the other tank. So we have a prosocial choice and antisocial choice. When there is …

Rob Wiblin speaks with FiveThirtyEight election forecaster and author Nate Silver about his new book: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. Links to learn more, highlights, video, and full transcript. On the Edge explores a cultural grouping Nate dubs “the River” — made up of people who are analytical, competitive, quantitatively minded, risk…

When I reached out to Charles Broskoski, co-founder of Are.na, it was largely because I kept hearing mention of the service he'd built increasingly entering the zeitgeist among young, creative technologists. What I thought would be a conversation about the tension between creativity in technology ended up being a much more nuanced conversation. Som…

After wrapping this week’s conversation with published author and ReadySet’s CEO, Y-vonne Hutchinson, I stepped out of the studio, opened my phone, and X was ablaze. In the year of our Lord 2024, a startup had decided that an anti-woke marketing campaign was the best possible way for them to generate attention for their payroll software company. Th…