The nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com). Hosted by Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein.
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BASIC is the only peace and security non-governmental organization that is British-American in composition and focus. With programs that address diplomacy and decision-making around nuclear weapons, we work on both sides of the Atlantic to encourage sustainable transatlantic security policies and to develop the strategies that can achieve them. We have charitable status in the United Kingdom and in the United States. We operate with offices in London and Washington, a small but committed sta ...
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Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any problem that isn’t directly in front of them. They like to push each other to the brink, and often do. But when they don’t, it’s usually because other people enter the proverbial room. Private citizens who step up and play peacemaker when their governments won’t or can’t. People who strive for collaboration and understanding, and sometimes end up findi ...
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In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an “almost war” recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up. Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!…
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The Trump administration appears to be willing to return to the JCPOA, so long as you do not call it the JCPOA. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest back and forth with Iran and what’s at stake with the return to nuclear negotiations. Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!…
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Aaron and Jeffrey sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense. Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
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Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest news about anti-satellite warfare and why bumping and grinding in the cosmos is back en vogue. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
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Tusk Muses About France’s Force De Frappe
42:18
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42:18Donald Tusk — not the indulgent follow up to the perfect Fleetwood Mac Album Rumours — mused recently about the future of deterrence in Europe. The discussion reminds of the challenges of extended deterrence, the oh so very French debate about nuclear weapons and European security, and the vibe shift that has raised questions about the future US se…
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Russia launched an experimental, offensive missile into Ukraine, aimed at the PA Pivdenmash (former Yuzhmash) factory. This is a new world of missile combat, as this looks to be the first use of an IRBM (though not at IRBM ranges) and possibly MIRV (though conventional!) in combat. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about Russia's new Oreshnik missile, what it…
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The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity. Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred's experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK's EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austen meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC manners and etiquette. …
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An absolutely massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North.... ...wait sorry.... South Korea. Force of habit. Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don't worry, it's just an "SRBM with an eight ton warhead," nothing to see here. The team talks about messaging, move/countermoves on the Korean…
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China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts. Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in 1980. Decker and Jeffrey talk about the inte…
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Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we're still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what Iran's options for next ste…
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Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear storage facil…
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Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT'ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of both the Russian and C…
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Tom Schelling described escalation as a "curved slope" where you won't be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of "legitimate conventional military target" and "direct cause of nuclear escala…
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We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran's missile raid or Israeli's missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile defense intercepts can be validated via open source means, which is a major step forward for open source…
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And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself "Well, how did I get here?" Letting the days go by, politics wil…
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Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque
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40:29William Alberque joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our previous episode. This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply for Russia's view of its own territorial integrity, what it needs to convince its soldiers to go to bat for, …
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Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times
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35:35
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35:35Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have written an excellent piece on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China. Jeffrey and Aaron go through what the documents reveal and debate if they're generally consistant with what is understood about Russ…
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Road trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The BEEF, and the crown jewel, U1a. This was an NNSA exercise in transparency, aimed at showing the community and world that t…
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Shoigu went shopping. Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for global ballistic missile proliferation, possible South Korean responses, an…
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North Korea finally got a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, after several failed prior attempts! While it is a little rough around the edges, every program has to start somewhere. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the implications of the DPRK's reconnaissance satellite, the relationship of the DPRK missile and space programs, and the importance of …
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The United States Library of Congress selected Dr. Strangelove as one of the first 25 films in the National Film Registry. As we approach the 60th anniversary of Dr. Strangelove (in Jan 2024), our live podcast panel takes a critical look at the dark comedy and reveals how the satire is uncomfortably realistic, even to this day. Using dialogue from …
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Some questions fall far outside the scope of what governments are designed to answer. How will we explain ourselves to extraterrestrials? What can we say to warn humans 10,000 years in the future about the nuclear waste we’re leaving behind? Assuming we develop the proper technology, would it be beneficial to breed glowing cats? Two decades after N…
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Fishermen dying mysteriously off the coast of Japan. Entire populations of sea animals disappearing. Despite decades of work by the international community, the high seas remain law enforcement’s biggest blind spot, and the site of environmental crimes whose effects reach around the world. But some people are attempting to stop these crimes: We fol…
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Take a listen to the latest season of Jeffrey Lewis's podcast, The Reason We're All Still Here Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any problem that isn’t directly in front of them. They like to push each other to the brink, and often do. But when t…
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Looks like everyone is preparing for a party. Between Russia's potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test "if the United States does," and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren't looking great for the longevity of nuclear test ban norms. China and the U.S. have been modernizing too, though the U.S. has offered to allow mo…
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In February 2020, an elite group of biosecurity experts, worried about the threat of pandemics, plays a bizarrely prescient role-playing game. They run into an age-old pattern of secrecy and mistrust, one that thwarts their efforts to ‘beat’ the game. We travel back to a (real-life) period when dozens of mysterious deaths occurred in a closed Sovie…
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There are no international laws against littering in space, which is a shame, because individual governments love to blow things up in low-Earth orbit. The result? A crisis of ricocheting debris that goes on forever. As private industry sends an unprecedented number of satellites into orbit, security experts find themselves in a race against the cl…
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Windmills in a North Korean Cabbage Patch
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35:59An arms-control advocate accepts an invitation to the dacha of a hard-partying North Korean power broker. There, through a haze of smoke and propaganda, they identify some common ground and set out to test a hypothesis: That it’s possible for Americans and North Koreans to work together toward peace. The result is a tense but extraordinary moment i…
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