Best Jpconklin Podcasts (2025)

1
A Cut This Week But None Next Year? 18:00

Play Pause

17h ago18:00

18:00

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting. For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screensho…

1
My Thanksgiving List - Markets Edition 16:56

12d ago16:56

16:56

On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love. Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant, here. If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player…

1
I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning 23:06

30d ago23:06

23:06

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.By JP Conklin

1
Quick Fed Meeting Take Aways 6:57

1M ago6:57

6:57

On this special edition episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's Fed meeting and analyze Powell's surprising remarks and what to be on the look out for in the week ahead. See you on 11/10! Here is the link to JP's recap in the Pensford Newsletter.By JP Conklin

1
The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026 23:29

1M ago23:29

23:29

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA's "thorough investigation" didn't find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four poss…

1
What Pushes the 10T to 3.62% 19:50

2M ago19:50

19:50

On this epidode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down this Thursday's CPI release — why the market will probably react even though it's full of noise, what could drive the 10-year Treasury to 3.62%, and the one signal that could tell us the Fed won't cut rates at the next meeting.By JP Conklin

1
The Fed Will Cut Even if the Govt is Still Shut Down 20:52

2M ago20:52

20:52

On this episode of The Rate Guy we answer the question we've gotten a lot this week..."If the Federal government is still shut down on Oct. 29, will the Fed meet and make a decision about rates?" We answer that and many more about how Fed cuts will effect the 10 year treasury and why the US is still the world's mattress.…

1
Introducing the PLS…Pensford Labor Statistics! 17:40

2M ago17:40

17:40

On this episode of The Rate Guy we explore the private data sources around the job market and what they might mean in the absence of official government statistics. We also talk about projected rate cuts and when they will likely happen. For those of you that want to read along with the stats here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. And to see …

1
The Aftermath of the Fed Meeting 18:10

3M ago18:10

18:10

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the aftermath of the Fed Meeting and break down how we think it will affect markets and how people are borrowing.By JP Conklin

1
7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week 28:59

3M ago28:59

28:59

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed's credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren't) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so importa…

1
Friday's Jobs Report Means The Fed is Already Behind the Curve 25:22

3M ago25:22

25:22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss jobs and the shocking data that came out last week and how that (and a few other factors) will influence the Fed with their decision on cutting rate next week.By JP Conklin

1
The Fed's Real Focus 27:53

3M ago27:53

27:53

On this episode of The Rate Guy we urge you to forget CPI—the Fed's watching jobs. Unemployment at 4.2% isn't the good news it looks like. We explain r*, clear up the natural vs. neutral rate confusion, and connect the dots from D.C.'s deficit and the 10 Yr Treasury.By JP Conklin

1
Special Jackson Hole Edition 17:43

4M ago17:43

17:43

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.By JP Conklin

1
Revision Chickens Come Home to Roost 27:02

4M ago27:02

27:02

This week on The Rate Guy, we talk about the wild aftermath of Friday's shocking jobs report—highlighting one of the biggest downward revisions since April 2020. We break down what really happened, why Trump fired the Commissioner of the BLS, and what that move signals for the Fed and future data credibility. We also unpack the growing odds of a ra…

1
Put Your Hard Hats On, It's Going to be a Crazy Week 23:55

4M ago23:55

23:55

We take one week off and everything goes haywire. What in the world?! This week on The Rate Guy, we're unpacking the chaos of last week, previewing a data-heavy week ahead, and digging into how markets and rates might respond. Also, a heartfelt RIP to the icons we lost. Our childhood nostalgia definitely took a hit.…

1
Bond Buying Baby 17:09

5M ago17:09

17:09

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.By JP Conklin

1
The Big Beautiful Job Market 14:58

5M ago14:58

14:58

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.…

1
Wall Street Meet Socialism 16:53

5M ago16:53

16:53

On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why.By JP Conklin

1
The Uncertainty Bends Continue 13:47

6M ago13:47

13:47

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.By JP Conklin

1
What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months) 23:52

6M ago23:52

23:52

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.By JP Conklin

1
Jobs, Schmobs 23:25

6M ago23:25

23:25

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn't reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.…

1
The Tail That Wagged The Dog 48:07

7M ago48:07

48:07

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.By JP Conklin

1
The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues 20:04

7M ago20:04

20:04

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.By JP Conklin

1
Fed Meeting Primer 20:44

7M ago20:44

20:44

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like …

1
Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo 1:14:39

8M ago1:14:39

1:14:39

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.…

1
WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind? 48:07

8M ago48:07

48:07

On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it's probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP's career. H…

1
Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln? 26:30

8M ago26:30

26:30

This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.By JP Conklin

1
The Uncertainty Bends 22:05

9M ago22:05

22:05

This week's episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on i…

1
Is the Labor Market the Frog in the Boiling Pot of Water? 29:52

9M ago29:52

29:52

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk tariffs, recession, GDP and of course Jobs, and why the number may be scarier that we think. Here is the SOS Recession Indicator that JP references as well as the sweet cardboard cut out of Saquon leaping backwards over J. Powell! Thanks Craig!By JP Conklin

1
DOGE Impact on NFP and the UR 24:06

9M ago24:06

24:06

What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it's contained enough for the Fed to shift focus. Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it's just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money …

1
59 Reasons the T10 Will Fall to 4% 24:53

10M ago24:53

24:53

On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that!By JP Conklin

1
If Markets Played in The Superbowl 24:32

10M ago24:32

24:32

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it's a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels! Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury. What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market ins…

1
DJT, Jerry Jones, and The Real JP Walk Into a Bar... 11:40

11M ago11:40

11:40

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!By JP Conklin

1
No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year 15:56

11M ago15:56

15:56

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.By JP Conklin

1
Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge 23:24

11M ago23:24

23:24

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week's inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we're holding LA, its residents, …

1
Lead Pipe Lock Guarantees for 2025 34:16

11M ago34:16

34:16

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss. Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season. Happy New Year!By JP Conklin

1
'Twas the Night Before FOMC 9:17

12M ago9:17

9:17

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas. JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.…

1
The Economy Lost 355k Jobs Last Month 22:11

1y ago22:11

22:11

On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark. For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Matc…

1
DAYzed And Confused 18:23

1y ago18:23

18:23

On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.By JP Conklin

1
I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both at Once 26:50

1y ago26:50

26:50

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family's driving mishaps and the Fed's approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what's ahead for rates.…

1
Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%? 24:05

1y ago24:05

24:05

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yieldsBy JP Conklin

1
Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be? 26:19

1y ago26:19

26:19

Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump's biggest obstacle.By JP Conklin

1
Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up Because You're Crazy. 19:18

1y ago19:18

19:18

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State's repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts.…

1
The Fed is Cutting and the T10 is Surging? 35:03

1y ago35:03

35:03

We're baaaaack! On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can't take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down. Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP fore…

1
The Fed is Still Cutting in November 16:39

1y ago16:39

16:39

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November. FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.By JP Conklin

1
JMo Unmasked 19:19

1y ago19:19

19:19

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what's next. Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!…

1
The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't 21:44

1y ago21:44

21:44

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're keeping it short and sweet. We're prepping for Wednesday's rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won't go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We'll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting. Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that y…

1
The Fed Should Cut to 3.25% 20:34

1y ago20:34

20:34

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed. Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, "We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the be…

1
The Fed Is Cutting No Matter What NFP Says 22:51

1+ y ago22:51

22:51

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen. Link to …

1
The Fed Might Cut 50bps Next Month 18:04

1+ y ago18:04

18:04

Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'…