The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed onto the next writer, and so on. Produced by Lydia Thomson
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Chain Reaction Project Podcasts
Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
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Ep 41 - China's economy is strong and weak at the same time
56:26
56:26
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56:26Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you! In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D…
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Ep 40 - China's AI+ Initiative – why the AI race is not the Manhattan Project
1:00:12
1:00:12
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1:00:12Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible. The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative. Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August. And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI…
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Ep 39 - China's new economic growth model
52:11
52:11
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52:11For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure. But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model. The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgrading Aggressive export growth Technological innovation What's less well understood is how these par…
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Ep 38 - Back in black: Beijing’s efforts to turn around falling tax revenue
38:50
38:50
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38:50China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting. That’s not supposed to happen: Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Re…
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Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week. Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Nar…
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China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February. Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundam…
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Ep 35 - How much dependence on China is too much?
50:21
50:21
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50:21China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage. The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts? In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and S…
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Ep 34 - Beijing's curious plan to stimulate services consumption with more investment
40:03
40:03
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40:03The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments. Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – a…
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Ep 33 - It's turning out to be a good year for China's economy
51:41
51:41
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51:41When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discus…
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Ep 32 - Dueling AI development strategies
55:39
55:39
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55:39China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans. In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans. The two discuss: The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sal…
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Ep 31 - The involution will not be televised
47:27
47:27
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47:27Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors? Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question. Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural cau…
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Ep 30 - China preps for demise of US dollar dominance
39:17
39:17
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39:17At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization. Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw mar…
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Ep 29 - Consumer upswings + geopolitical downswings
37:35
37:35
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37:35In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. The three discuss a variety of topics including: China’s improving consumer data The current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock in Th…
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Ep 28 - Exiting the US-China trade death spiral
43:45
43:45
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43:45In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. The two discuss: The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the pa…
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Ep 27 - Weaponizing supply chains + the real-time breakdown of the Geneva détente
40:54
40:54
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40:54On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction. The three discuss: The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of elec…
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Ep 26 - China explores its key points of trade leverage: rare earth export control updates + sanctions threats
53:54
53:54
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53:54In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s head of critical mineral and supply chain research, Cory Combs, to address the mounting confusion over whether and how China will ease off on its rare earth export curbs. The gents discuss: The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet …
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Ep 25 - Trivium Markets - Trade war ceasefire + export control latest + courting LATAM
36:45
36:45
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36:45In this week’s pod, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk, Trey McArver, and Ether Yin all sat down together in DC to discuss the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war. They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve. And finally, the gents discussed wh…
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Ep 24 - Trivium Markets - China ramps up economic support + doubling down on exports
48:22
48:22
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48:22It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs. In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday. The gents get into the nitty gritty of…
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Ep 23 - Trivium Markets and Politics - On Protracted (Trade) War
43:46
43:46
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43:46In this week’s podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver examine Beijing’s latest thinking on trade tensions with the US – as both sides settle in for a sustained confrontation. The two discuss: Whether Beijing has Trump’s number The shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilities Conflicting reports as to whether China…
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Ep 22 - The tariffs “have become a joke” + rare earth controls
46:29
46:29
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46:29In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined again by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to unpack the latest US-China trade war twists. The two discuss: Friday’s pause in the tariff escalation China’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate further Whether the pause has staying power Why a painful stalemat…
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Ep 21 - Trivium Markets and Politics - US-China tariff dumpster fire
44:12
44:12
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44:12In this week’s Trivium China podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver unpack the whirlwind tariff tit-for-tat between the US and China over the past week. The two discuss: Whether we are now locked in an unstoppable escalatory spiral Possible off-ramps for de-escalation How each side is misreading the other The best- and worst-case…
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Ep 20 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi meets foreign execs, China’s Liberation Day reaction, and Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying cars
54:01
54:01
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54:01In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two: Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on Friday Discuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK Hutchison Previ…
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Ep 19 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Beijing courts global CEOs + sharpens economic coercion tools
52:22
52:22
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52:22This week, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk sat down in Shanghai with fellow Co-founder Ether Yin and Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur to discuss: Global businesses in Beijing for the China Development Forum The messages Chinese leaders are sending to the business community The stark contrast in mood between domestic and foreig…
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Ep 18 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Action plan on consumption + trade war impacts on agriculture
48:08
48:08
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48:08In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Director of China Ag Research Even Pay. The two first discuss the biggest policy move out of China over the last week: · Beijing’s big new plan to boost consumption this year Spoiler alert: There’s a lot in the plan, but we’re still skeptical it will be enough to ge…
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Ep 17 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi Jinping's innovation obsession + the critical minerals race
1:06:23
1:06:23
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1:06:23That’s a wrap, folks! The Two Sessions officially concluded in Beijing on Tuesday – just in time for this week’s podcast. To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary. Spoiler alert: It’s pretty mu…
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Ep 16 - Trivium Markets - Decoding China’s 2025 economic playbook + Joining the Sinica Podcast Network
1:18:46
1:18:46
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1:18:46The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4. In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report. Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationa…
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Ep 15 - Trivium Tech - AI fever and the future of China’s private sector
1:01:30
1:01:30
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1:01:30The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks. And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest. In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss: Xi Jinping’s recent confab with pri…
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Ep 14 - Trivium Markets - China’s best industrial policy is climate policy
1:00:12
1:00:12
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1:00:12To thrive in the long term, China needs to undergo near-total industrial restructuring. So how’s that going? In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including: How Beijing has been using ca…
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Ep 13 - Trivium Markets - China’s Q4 growth miracle, and future prospects for its export machine
49:21
49:21
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49:21While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.” Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in…
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Ep 12 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Game on: Beijing hits back at latest Trump tariffs
1:02:05
1:02:05
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1:02:052025 is off to a rollicking start – especially when it comes to all things China. After an extended hiatus from the pod, your friendly Trivium China team is back in the saddle to keep you up to date on all the latest happenings. This episode features a discussion on the week’s back-and-forth between China and the US on the econ and tech fronts, fea…
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Ep 11 - Trivium Markets - Key takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference
45:53
45:53
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45:53In the final weeks of each year, the Party convenes the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) – a gathering of China’s top economic policymakers – to hammer out the economic agenda for the year ahead. In this podcast, our last for 2024, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what we learned from this y…
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Ep 10 - Trivium Markets and Politics - China flexes its export control muscles, puts Nvidia in the hotseat
43:06
43:06
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43:06China’s approach to economic retaliation against the US continues to evolve, with the past 10 days seeing a new round of critical mineral export controls and the launch of an anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia. This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs t…
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Ep 9 - Trivium Markets - Previewing the Central Economic Work Conference and 2025 macro policy
42:04
42:04
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42:04As the year draws to a close, it’s time for economic forecasts! In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025. To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top …
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Ep 8 - Trivium Politics - Reacting to Trump and courting the Global South
41:27
41:27
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41:27Xi Jinping had a busy week of diplomacy in South America, and in this episode of the Trivium China podcast we get into all of it. Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss: Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategy China’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protecti…
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Ep 7 - Trivium Markets - The fiscal stimulus that wasn't
47:35
47:35
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47:35On November 8, China finally unveiled its long-awaited fiscal stimulus package. It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disapp…
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Ep 6 - Trivium Markets - China’s evolving approach to economic coercion
40:16
40:16
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40:16In this week’s policy discussion, your friendly Trivium China team takes a step back to look at how China’s approach to economic coercion is evolving. Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver to examine how Chinese officials have steadily built up robust countersanctions and export control regimes to hit ba…
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Ep 5 - Trivium Markets - Still waiting for stimulus and pondering the election
35:31
35:31
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35:31After waiting over a month for a stimulus package from Beijing, we now know when to expect it – November 8, at the conclusion of a meeting by the legislature’s (NPC) standing committee. In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what’s likely to be in the stimulus package and wh…
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Ep 4 - Trivium Markets - Q3 econ data breakdown
43:02
43:02
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43:02The economic print for the third quarter of 2024 was pretty bad. But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data. They then discuss a recent essay b…
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Ep 3 - Trivium Markets - Stimulus disappointment
37:39
37:39
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37:39It’s been a busy couple of weeks for China’s regulators. In quick succession there have been press conferences hosted by the economic planner (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and housing ministry (MoHURD). Yet none of them have delivered what everyone’s waiting for: stimulus. Of course, as is always the case, the devils in the detail – and the re…
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Ep 2 - Trivium Markets - The dog that didn't bark, fiscal stimulus edition
36:38
36:38
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36:38The big story out of Beijing this week has been fiscal stimulus: it didn’t materialize on Tuesday at the economic planner’s (NDRC) press conference, and now all eyes are on the finance ministry’s (MoF) press conference on Saturday. In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, talk all things sti…
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Ep 1 - Trivium Markets - Monetary support and the promise of fiscal stimulus - Trivium China Podcast
44:03
44:03
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44:03It’s been a BIG week for economic policy in China. On September 24, the central bank (PBoC) rolled out a range of monetary support measures to bolster the economy, boost share prices, and provide property developers with financial relief. On September 26, the Politburo surprised everyone by dedicating its September meeting to the economy, with the …
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10. Scent of Burnt Ends - Lucy Sheen, Rebecca Yeo
10:07
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10:07'Scent of Burnt Ends ' is written by Lucy Sheen and performed by Rebecca Yeo.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then …
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9. Sudden Irresistible Urge to Gamble - Matt Morrison, Damian Lynch
10:04
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10:04'Sudden Irresistible Urge to Gamble' is written by Matt Morrison and performed by Damian Lynch.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Th…
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'Dreamland' is written by Brian Eley and performed by Colin Mace.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed onto …
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'Oblivion' is written and performed by Tania Rodrigues.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed onto the next w…
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'The Moon' is written by Afsaneh Gray and performed by Avita Jay.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed onto …
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'Self Help' is written by Carla Grauls and performed by Katy Sobey.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed ont…
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This piece is written by Bethany Sharp and performed by Anna Nicholson.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed…
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This piece is written by Leo Whetter and performed by David Thorpe.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed ont…
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This piece is written and performed by Ben Carter.This is the Chain Reaction Project.The Chain Reaction project is a series of stories written in response to each other. A story is passed to the next writer in the chain, and they respond to it with another story, as loosely or as closely as they wish. Their story is then passed onto the next writer…
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