Bulls appear to have re-gained control of the stock market. If the bears truly have the upper hand, they need to prove it now...or stocks look set to rise to new all-time highs soon.Technical analysis expert Sven Henrich of Northman Trader walks us through his latest charts, showing where both the greatest risk and opportunity lies in today's marke…

The market is at a critical point, observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts.If the S&P can hold above the 200 daily moving average over the coming week, then the correction will be officially over and stocks should have an open field to run back up to the previous highs (and possibly higher).If not, then the odds that the recent run have been a bea…

It's said that the "Trump put" on financial markets is not on the S&P in this second term, but rather on the 10year US Treasury yield.The rise in Treasury yields since 2022 has sent the cost of servicing America's federal debt to record highs, exceeding spending on national defense for fiscal year 2024.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indica…

Progress on trade deals has returned investor optimism to the financial markets.The S&P has regained all of its April losses and is now green for the year.But the growing sense that “everything is going to be OK” ignores the elephant in the room, warns macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy: stubbornly high bond yields.The longer the US 10year Treasury sta…

Last year, fears of recession faded from the headlines as the "no landing" narrative won out.But the disruption brought by the new Trump administration -- especially around global trade -- has brought recession concerns back to the forefront.The Administration says it isn't worried. That we're merely passing through a transitory "detox" period befo…

The pace of change in the world order has accelerated notably in 2025.The era of globalization is being fast replaced by nationalism, protectionism and a shift towards regional trading blocks.In America, there's suddenly a recognition that runaway deficit spending and the accumulating pile of debt & unfunded liabilities is an existential problem th…

The current stock market rally looks long in the tooth, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.In his opinion, this looks likely to be a good time to lighten on positions, capture gains and prepare for a possible resumption to the downside.Stocks are exhibiting a classic correction trajectory, which historically has been punctuated with pronounced s…

The world economy has become a lot more uncertain in 2025.The shift away from decades of globalization towards nationalism and regional trading blocks has accelerated with the protectionist policies the new Trump administration is now pursuing.Gold has reacted to this uncertainty by soaring to new highs, and demand for other commodities is also in …

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comPortfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers.🎙️ New to…

History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern -- a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bus…

When today's guest expert was last on this channel, he predicted that the financial markets would have a "sloppy" start to 2025, but then find their footing and rise to new highs -- possibly as high as 7000 on the S&P -- by the end of the year.Of course, that was before the new Administration took office and all that has happened since then.So, is …

Despite the growing investor enthusiasm for the recent sharp rally in stocks, we're still in a "sell the rip" environment counsels portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz.He thinks it's more likely that stocks top out soon, to then fall to re-test the April lows.We discuss his reasons why, as well as bonds, tariffs, recession risk, the Federal Reserves …

Wall Street is hoping that, once the current uncertainty and unpredictability of the Trump tariffs start dissipating as new trade deals get struck, things will get back to "normal"Today's guest thinks yesterday's "normal" may now be an artifact of history.And that, like it or not, we've experienced "‘A Geopolitical And Economic Paradigm Shift’"That…

As worldwide tariff uncertainty persists and US-China tensions continue to escalate, are President Trump's trade policies speeding the economy into recession?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO…

Of all the disruptive policies President Trump has made so far in his second term, his hardball strategy to reform global trade has received the most scorn.His detractors call it "non-sensical" and "hamfisted".That it's based on faulty logic, poor math, and has done grave injury to relations with our closest allies.They fear it's actually driving t…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts, like Felix Zulauf, thinks the markets will remain volatile until Fall.Stocks will bounce, but then retreat, likely re-testing the lows made earlier this month.For many, this will be frustrating. Investors' hope will be raised, then dashed -- and then raised and dashed again.Lance doesn't expect a true bottom to be p…

Stocks prices are down, yields on bonds are up, and the dollar is weakening.This is the type of behavior one expects from emerging markets falling into "banana republic" trouble -- not what one expects of the US.In today's interview with the senior partners at New Harbor Financial, we discuss what's causing this worrisome action, how much longer it…

America's pensions are in big trouble. Many are underfunded vs their payout commitments. Many are being recklessly managed, overinvested in far too speculative assets for the safety of their constituents.Ted Siedle is a former SEC attorney. His firm, Benchmark Financial Services, Inc. has pioneered over $1 trillion in forensic investigations of the…

Despite the best efforts of Elon Musk and the DOGE team, the US fiscal deficit for 2025 is $1.3 trillion so far, the second highest six-month level on record.And while the US at least is giving lip service to its plans to reduce its deficit over coming years, much of the rest of the world's largest economies -- like the EU and China -- are actively…

We spend a lot of time on this channel hearing how experts think the financial markets will react to recent developments.But histories most successful investors -- the Warren Buffets, the Benjamin Grahams, the Peter Lynches and the John Templetons -- didn't concern themselves much with what was happening int he short term.Instead, they focused on d…

As Felix Zulauf also assesses, Lance Roberts thinks the markets are in a bottoming process.In his estimation, the majority of the negative risks (e.g. tariff uncertainty, slowing economic growth, weakening consumer) are already priced in to stocks and bonds. While he expects markets will likely remain volatile over the next few months and could ret…

When today's guest was on this program last back in December, he predicted the following:1. That a contraction in global liquidity could set the stage for severe market corrections and increased volatility -- check2. That stocks would peak early in 2025, and then experience a 15-20% correction -- check3. That new U.S. trade tariffs could lead to re…

Well, 2025 is here and the US housing market is still in an injured state.Will we start to see some healing this year?Or may things take a turn for the worse?Today we have the good fortune to be joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent reventure app.Nick will walk us through his latest outlook on the US hom…

TO BUY GOLD & SILVER, contact Andy's firm at [email protected] metals expert Andy Schectman gives his latest update on the gold & silver markets. He'll also take live audience Q&A.

In his last two appearances on this program, today's gues predicted the market would start to become more volatile.In the fall, he didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices. And he was proven correct.But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility would start to become a problem for investors.And boy,…

The swift spike in US Treasury yields has caught some of America's largest hedge funds by surprise, and the severe losses they're suffering are suddenly threatening to spill over into the banking system.These "basis trade" players are highly levered in what they considered very safe, very predictable assets.But bond yields jumped so quickly in resp…

When markets are in turmoil as they are now, I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearanc…

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

Wall Street feels like the world just got turned on its head.The once-bulletproof market rally shifted into reverse, with stocks falling for weeks to oversold levels in the short-term.And just when traders thought a bounce was due, President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs announcements sent the markets plunging by percentages not seen since the wor…

I've stated many times on this program that perhaps the easiest macro trend to forecast is that our fiat currencies will continue to lose purchasing power.Today's guest explains why, and what we can do to protect our wealth from this scourge in his new book: The Big Print, What Happened To America and How Sound Money Will Fix ItWe're fortunate to b…

Stocks got slaughtered this week in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.The S&P is now off more than -15% from its all-time high earlier this year. The NASDAQ is down over -20% from its ATH and is officially now in a "bear market".So, is this The Big One?Will stocks continue to crash? Perhaps triggering a recession?Or, might there be reasons…

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts joins me for a special report making sense of yesterday's announced "Liberation Day" tariffs.Live Q&A will be taken from the audience in the back half of the discussion

Today's guest had one of the best track records last year in forecasting key economic indicators like rates of inflation and unemployment.Now that we have a new Administration in place, one aggressively deploying disruptive economic policy changes, where does she see the key indicators heading from here?To find out, we have the good fortune to talk…

The Trump Administration's torrent of tariffs is keeping stocks on edge as "Liberation Day" approaches on April 2nd.Today I sit down with Jonathan Wellum, of Rocklinc Investment Partners up in Canada, to discuss how to invest through such market uncertainty.Jonathan gives a valuable perspective on the Trump tariffs from a country on the receiving e…

Over recent years, today's expert has consistently been one of the best predictors of where the inflation rate was headed.So, where does he see it heading from here? How about interest rates?And, why is he calling the Federal Reserve an "engine of income inequality?To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and get a full update today from S…

Wall Street likes predictability.And that's proving quite elusive these days.Which explains why stocks have been performing poorly of late.Too many curveballs, many thrown by the new Trump Administration's ever-changing tariff policies, are making it nearly impossible for analysts to make earnings forecasts that aren't completely outdated by the ne…

There's a lot of debate right now whether the US is indeed at risk of entering a recession this year.And at the same time, the stock market has become a lot more volatile, swinging between Risk On and Risk Off as Wall Street sentiment becomes increasingly bipolar.Who is more likely to be proven right this year: the optimists or the pessimists?For a…

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMacro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

After embracing the "no landing narrative" last year and later unleashing animal spirits after the Presidential election that drove stocks to record levels of euphoria, the national mood has turned substantially more dour.Suddenly, the headlines are filled with fears of recession.The post-COVID higher cost of living and the uncertainty caused by th…

To better understand the odds for success of the economic policies of the new Trump Administration, it helps to talk to someone with first-hand experience in managing the Federal budget.Today's guest, has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former…

Yesterday, the S&P 500 (barely) broke a 4-week losing streak of down weeks.On a technical level, stocks remain extremely oversold here and sentiment is similarly at a negative extreme.As portfolio manager Lance Roberts notes, conditions like these are ripe for a market reversal. In his opinion, the odds favor a rally in the near term -- perhaps as …

The new Trump Administration has wasted no time deploying its ambitious and disruptive economic policies.Tax cuts, aggressive trade re-negotiations, de-regulation, DOGE-driven cost reductions -- a potential new sovereign wealth fund.What are the intended benefits of these policies? Are they likely to succeed? Are they being implemented in the right…

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program.And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so…

Well, the Spring Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 10-hour day.Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Luke Gromen, Michael Howell, Da…

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy and I just concluded our bi-weekly live show.This week, Stephanie focused on recession risk and the mental gymnastics many go through to avoid addressing it.Not only are the economic data continuing to weaken, but even the new Administration is telling investors to prepare for a slowdown.Here’s US Treasury Secretary S…

After four weeks of relentless selling, the charter of the stock market has changed.While a short-term bounce is likely here, sentiment is now damaged.It will be harder for the market to race back to new highs, as investors start to price in a greater acceptance of the current risk factors.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVI…

After a pummeling few weeks over which the stocks lost $trillions in market cap, Friday saw a big rally and the reversal of a number of technical indicators.Does this mean the bottom is in? At least, in the near term?Quite possibly, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz.We discuss the reasons why this is more likely than not, and the importance o…

As mentioned many times on this program, stocks entered the year trading at or near record-high valuation extremes.When stocks are at such overbought extremes, short-sellers smell opportunity. They've certainly had a lot of it over the past two weeks.Today we have the good fortune of speaking with one of the best known short-sellers in the business…

Gold has experienced a major upwards repricing in recent years.It's up nearly $1,000/oz over the past two years.And in just the past year alone, it's up 35%, handily outperforming the S&P's return of just 13%.Some say gold is quite overbought after this big run. Others say it's just getting started, and that far higher prices lie ahead due to the o…

From tariffs to tax cuts to de-regulation to budget reductions to a potential sovereign wealth fund, the new Trump administration is moving aggressively to redesign the way America finances itself.Are these much-needed reforms that will put the American economy on a more secure & sustainable footing?Or could they risk resulting in misguided chaos?T…